Bitcoin Forecast Newsletter 4th week of April — Weekly Preferred Count

 

• Explanation

What is Impulse?

Impulse is a strong wave that reflects its trend. Reflecting trend means the direction of an impulse wave can go upside or down. When an impulse wave goes up, it will often be a part of a motive wave or it can also be a B wave in a corrective wave, conversely, when an impulse wave goes down, it will be a part of a corrective wave. As its name means, impulse wave is long-length and relatively quick to finish forming. So, in a larger frame, it seems single-directional wave or candle. An impulse wave often follows its trend with a massive volume and becomes a wave that breaks into a support or resistance line.

• Comment

It is analyzed that 2nd wave is on the way at this moment. 2nd wave of the newly forming impulse seems to continue as a flat pattern and it is consuming much more time than the previous bearish wave that is seemingly 1st wave. C wave of Flat is always a motive wave but, in this current pattern, the current wave that is believed to be the C wave of Flat in my analytic point of view is assumed to consume as much time as possible so as to draw a trend-less picture on the Bitcoin chart, which will describe exhaustion of wave momentum in the bullish sense.

• Weekly Trading Strategy

the current wave that retraces the previous bearish wave is believed to be 2nd wave of bearish impulse. Surely, we cannot ignore the possibility of immediate bearish movement but the fact that 2nd wave, which is the wave forming now, is continuing as Flat gives a bit of a hint about where to pivot. 1.618 of A wave, simultaneously, 0.786 of 1st wave, which is 69900~70000 seems the most plausible line of pivot. In conclusion, holding a long position at this moment is somewhat risky. the best position now would be waiting for Bitcoin to come on the good pivot point for shorting.